I have often said that I could give everyone my trading systems and it would do them no good.
Let me give you an example, I can show you a trading system that picks the direction of the market correctly 60% of the time. On winning trades that system shows a profit twice as large as the average losing trade. Now in anybody's book that is a great system.
But wait, there's more... That system gives traders an average of 13 trades a day. Again on average the system produces between $800 and $1000 (net after all costs) each week off a single contract.
WOW! That's a great system!
I can hear you say "Gimme, Gimme, and Gimme!" Who wouldn't?
Let me tell a couple of other things about the winning trading system. The system can produce a run of 7 losing trades in a row in any given month. Now let's deal with this, that is 7 losing trades in a row, how do you think you are going to feel after 7 losing trades in a row?
It's hard to take the next trade after 3 losing trades but this is systems trading, you must take every trade! If you don't take all trades you will not be in line for the run of 10 winning trades; which also happens once a month. It is hard to keep trading during a run of losses and after each successive losing trade it gets harder.
One of the comforts of this trading system is that the losing trades are small and it is important to understand that keeping losing trades to a bare minimum is the most important step in becoming a profitable trader. When designing trading systems I always seek to limit the average losing trade over a large number of trades. If we can set a limit on the size of losing trades we don't have to worry about losing trades anymore. We know what size our losing trade is going to be in advance so if our trade turns into a loser it will never be an unexpected amount. Certainty of return as determined by these rules helps to create confidence in the trader.
It helps to have a broad vision of time and activity. Smart traders know that they are not going to lose all their money in one trade, nor are they going to make a retirement fortune on one trade. It helps to think of the next trade as the first one of the next one-hundred trades.
Going back to our trading system, that system will produce an average of 13 trades a day or 65 trades a week. As the system picks the market direction correctly 60% of the time that is about 8 winning trades a day or 40 winning trades a week. Unfortunately they don't all come at the same time. It also means that on average 5 losing trades a day or 25 losing trades a week.
Traders must understand that no matter how hard you try you cannot tell which trades are going to be winners before you take the trade. Trading is about taking a position and then managing your risk.
Taking a position means buy or selling according to your signal, if you buy into a market you expect the market to rise and if you sell into a market you expect the market to fall, pretty simple really. Opening a position is the easy part. Exiting a position is a little more complicated not that we worry about a trade turning bad because if it does we get out very quickly. It is the profit-taking that complicates matters. The question is always "Where will I take my profit?"
Keep in mind that you must keep your losing trades limited to the pre-set value and never take a loss greater than that which is set. Having preset loss limits enables us to look at ways of maximising our profitable trades. I recommend clients have a minimum profit expectation of twice the average loss value before taking in a trade.
Trading a system requires a trader to take all trades. It is easier when you know in advance that any loss will be limited to a known amount so that there is no 'surprise' factor. It is a matter of taking a position and then managing the correct exit.
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